From June 3rd to June 7th, the domestic steel price index in China continued its decline with increased magnitude, affecting both the long and flat steel price indices.

During this period, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 105.24 points, marking a weekly decrease of 1.79 points, a decline of 1.67% from the previous month-end, a drop of 7.66 points or 6.78% from the end of last year, and a decrease of 1.43 points or 1.34% from the same period last year. Specifically, the long steel price index was 108.10 points, showing a weekly decline of 2.81 points or 2.54%, a decrease of 8.01 points or 6.90% from the end of last year, and a drop of 1.33 points or 1.22% from the same period last year. The flat steel price index stood at 103.25 points, down 1.26 points or 1.20% from the previous week, 8.55 points or 7.65% lower than the end of last year, and a 4.18-point or 3.89% decline compared to the same period last year.

Regionally, all six major regions in China observed a weekly decline in steel prices, with the Northeast region experiencing the largest drop and the Northwest region the smallest. Specifically, the steel price index for North China was 104.55 points, down 1.87 points or 1.76% from the previous week, but showing a 0.49-point or 1.38% increase from the same period last year. The Northeast region recorded a steel price index of 104.45 points, marking a weekly decrease of 1.98 points or 1.86%, with a 1.42-point or 1.38% increase compared to the same period last year. East China reported a steel price index of 105.91 points, down 1.88 points or 1.74% from the previous week, and a 1.93-point or 1.79% decrease year-on-year. The Central-South region saw a steel price index of 106.92 points, showing a weekly decline of 1.73 points or 1.59%, and a 0.86-point or 0.80% decrease compared to the same period last year. Southwest China’s steel price index was 104.87 points, down 1.95 points or 1.82% from the previous week, and a 0.32-point or 0.30% decrease year-on-year. Finally, the Northwest region registered a steel price index of 106.70 points, down 0.94 points or 0.88% from the previous week, and a 1.02-point or 0.95% decrease year-on-year.

Regarding specific steel product categories, all eight major types of steel prices declined compared to the previous month-end, with rebar experiencing the largest decrease and hot-rolled seamless pipes the smallest. For instance, the price of 6mm high-grade steel wire decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 3912 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.71%; 16mm rebar dropped by 104 yuan/ton to 3643 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%; 5# angle steel decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 3853 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.86%; 20mm medium plate dropped by 44 yuan/ton to 3859 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13%; 3mm hot-rolled coil decreased by 58 yuan/ton to 3869 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.48%; 1mm cold-rolled thin plate decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 4349 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.11%; 1mm galvanized sheet decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 4903 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35%; and 219mm × 10mm hot-rolled seamless pipe decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 4762 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%.

From the cost perspective, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, in May, the average import price of iron ore was $105.80 per ton, with a weekly decrease of $7.32 per ton, down 6.47% compared to the previous week. This marks a decline of $17.46 per ton or 14.17% since December 2023, and a decrease of $11.11 per ton or 9.50% compared to the same period last year. For the week of June 3rd to June 7th, the domestic market price of iron ore fines was 981 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton or 0.81% from the end of the previous month, a decrease of 129 yuan per ton or 11.62% from the end of last year, and an increase of 101 yuan per ton or 11.48% year-on-year.

Coking coal (grade ten) was priced at 1,978 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan per ton or 0.76% from the end of the previous month, down 615 yuan per ton or 23.72% from the end of last year, and up 350 yuan per ton or 21.50% year-on-year. The price of coke was 1,979 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton or 1.25% from the end of the previous month, down 475 yuan per ton or 19.36% from the end of last year, and up 106 yuan per ton or 5.66% year-on-year. Scrap steel was priced at 2,848 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton or 1.04% from the end of the previous month, down 141 yuan per ton or 4.72% from the end of last year, and up 10 yuan per ton or 0.35% year-on-year.

From the international market perspective, in May, the CRU International Steel Price Index was 202.8 points, down 2.8 points or 1.4% from the previous month, down 15.9 points or 7.3% from the end of last year, and down 36.4 points or 15.2% year-on-year. Specifically, the CRU Long Products Price Index was 206.4 points, down 2.9 points or 1.4% from the previous month, and down 30.4 points or 12.8% year-on-year. The CRU Flat Products Price Index was 201 points, down 2.8 points or 1.4% from the previous month, and down 39.4 points or 16.4% year-on-year. Regionally, in May, the price index was 240.5 points in North America, down 10.4 points or 4.1% from the previous month; 217.7 points in Europe, down 4.1 points or 1.8% from the previous month; and 172.4 points in Asia, up 2.4 points or 1.4% from the previous month.

For the first week of June, domestic steel prices continued their downward trend since late May. In terms of supply, steel mills saw improved resumption of production in May compared to April, but the market still faced oversupply. In terms of demand, both actual demand and market expectations showed significant improvement compared to earlier periods. Moving into June, it is anticipated that there will be limited improvement in demand compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, it is expected that policies to regulate crude steel production will soon be formulated and implemented nationwide, providing some support to expectations of rising steel prices. Overall, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.